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(10/29/07)
An InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Research survey conducted October 24-25th finds that a majority of Georgians plan to spend either about the same or less in the remaining months of this year as they spent for the same period last year. More than a third said they plan to spend less. The survey of 400 Georgians has a margin of error of +/-5% and is weighted for age, race, and gender.
The results:
Will spend more: 7%
Will spend about the same amount: 50%
Will spend less: 38%
Undecided/No Opinion: 5%
Majority Opinion Research President Jeff Shusterman: “We ask this question routinely, but the results this time were obviously less positive than in recent years or even recent quarters. The greatest area of concern is the fact that the two age brackets that make up the bulk of high-end spending had the most negative responses. Among those age 30-to-44, around 45% said they intended to spend less in the fourth quarter as opposed to last year. And for those age 45-to-64 that figure was 42%.”
InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery: “The only real bright spot was among those between the age of 18-to-29 where 63% said they would spend about the same amount and another 7% said that they would spend more than last year. The problem here is that this age group has a lower degree of disposable income on the whole.”
This news likely confirms the belief under the Gold Dome that revenue to the state for the last quarter of ’07 and potentially into ’08 will be less than in recent years. As one source put it, “If nothing else, revenue growth to the state will slow down which will put even more burden on the governor and legislature to find funds necessary for various projects.”
Shusterman also reminded, “We should all realize that the survey is a snapshot based on the economy at this time, which means that a cut in interest rates or some other economic boost might change the minds of Georgia consumers."
“On the other hand,” Towery warned, “there is precious little time between now and the all important Christmas retail season. In recent years we have come to see first projections of early holiday spending as strong, only to find revised numbers often weaken. If the numbers start out weaker this year, we could find this a very tough market for retailers at Christmas time with a need for deep discounts and earlier sales to move merchandise.”
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