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June 6, 2006
Q. If the election for the Democratic nomination for governor were held today, would you vote for:
Mark Taylor: 34 percent
Cathy Cox: 27 percent
Undecided: 39 percent
Survey conducted among 450 likely Democratic primary voters. Weighted for age, race, and gender. Conducted May 30 thru May 31, 2006. Margin of error is plus/minus 5 percent.
Analysis: This survey was conducted at news (broadcast and print) survey standards. As a result, as are most legitimate surveys held to such standards this far out from an election, the percentage of those undecided remains relatively strong. This is consistent with the more stringent polling requirements established for major national newspapers and national broadcast media.
The Taylor campaign's early and strong media blitz has overcome Cox's early and strong lead. While Cox continues to hold a reasonably strong advantage among female voters (a 10-point margin among decided female voters), she was trailing substantially among African Americans (36 percent to 20 percent). Both candidates were splitting the white Democratic vote almost evenly. Older voters were also more in the Taylor camp.
The one silver lining for Cox appeared to be the fact that female voters, who are trending in her direction, were undecided (45 percent vs. 36 percent for male voters). In other words, there are more potentially pro-Cox voters to be gained among this critical voting bloc. However, the bad news for Cox is that 44 percent of African Americans - a substantial portion of a Democratic primary electorate – are undecided. That voting bloc has trended heavily toward Taylor.
InsiderAdvantage (parent company of Southern Political Report) CEO and nationally syndicated columnist (Creators Syndicate) Matt Towery, had the following observations:
"Cathy Cox's decision to wait to take to the airwaves and then offer relatively low key ads gave Mark Taylor, with his more polished and specific ads and a much stronger strength of media buy, the opportunity to rocket beyond her in the polls. Taylor's ads have been well crafted to appeal to crucial African American voters without offending white or Hispanic voting blocs. It was brilliant for the Taylor ad team to include both white and black babies in their commercials. And Andy Young's early endorsement clearly set the stage for these ads to take hold.
“As for the chances for the Cox campaign, they remain very much in her own hands. First, her media must become bolder in its message and presentation. Taylor is offering new proposals, while Cox appears to be speaking in generalities. And Cox needs to put her ‘gender advantage’ out on the table. Taylor leads among decided males by an astounding 40 percent to 24 percent. She won't win them, so she must go full tilt for the female vote. Cox must unabashedly advertise her ‘vote for a competent woman’ message in order to bring home the huge undecided vote of women (who vote at much higher levels than do men in a Democratic primary).
“In Taylor's instance, it's clearly ‘keep on keeping on.’ His advantages both in terms of ad resources and better advertising have placed him clearly in the front-runner's position. Taylor needs an ad devoted to splitting the female vote. If he can meet that task, the race is all but his.
“Let me also note, be wary of any polls that show a low undecided in this race. We are still many weeks out and the ad buys (combined with public inattentiveness at this time of the year) do not justify numbers which would suggest that most voters have made up their minds in this race. The last three weeks of this campaign will decide the nomination. Cox is fortunate in that she went up with some sort of ads, even if the first was horrid and the second just OK. Had she not, this race would be over.
“However, there is still time in this battle and we expect the race to narrow. What will be the key factors? African American turnout and female turnout. We expect white males, who heavily favor Taylor, to fall off the map on primary day. That would make for a closer race.
“But currently we are seeing the results of a team of seasoned pros taking on a team of first time big league players. That doesn't mean an upset can't happen. It just means that Cox – who, prior to the Taylor team swinging into full gear was leading in virtually all polls - has suffered a recent reversal of fortune. However, the race remains far more competitive than armchair analysts, seeing these numbers, might suggest."
(Note to media subscribers: Members of the print and electronic media who are paid subscribers to Southern Political Report may reprint or broadcast results of this survey after midnight, Friday, June 2, 2006. Only media with at least one employee and or/a company-owned subscription may republish this survey without written permission from InsiderAdvantage/Internet News Agency. All non-subscribers may request permission to republish InsiderAdvantage polls by contacting 404-233-3710 or emailing to lhunter@insideradvantage.com). Subscribers must request permission to republish in any form the results on the above poll in the same manner.)
NOTE: INSIDERADVANTAGE/MAJORITY OPINION RESEARCH WILL BEGIN AN UNPRECEDENTED 24/7 POLL-TRACK EFFORT BEGINNING IN EARLY JULY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS. THESE TRACKING POLLS OF KEY POLITICAL RACES WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLY AT SOUTHERN POLITICAL REPORT. |
